FePsy Basel

Dynamic Psychosis-Risk Prediction (DPRP)

The Dynamic Psychosis-Risk Prediction (DPRP) is an online risk calculator that estimates the individual risk of transition to a manifest psychosis in patients at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis (CHR-P). The underlying joint model was developed and internally validated using the longitudinal follow-up data of the FePsy cohort.

In contrast to earlier static risk calculators, the DPRP can dynamically update its prediction as new symptom data become available during follow-up — so the prognosis becomes more accurate over time.

How to use:

  • Enter the baseline data on the left (years of school education, BPRS sub-scales for positive symptoms and disorganization).
  • Use Add row to add follow-up measurements of BPRS positive symptoms.
  • The Figure and Table tabs show the estimated survival curve and the numeric risk estimates respectively.

Open calculator in a new tab

Scientific basis

Studerus E., Beck K., Fusar-Poli P., Riecher-Rössler A. (2020). Development and Validation of a Dynamic Risk Prediction Model to Forecast Psychosis Onset in Patients at Clinical High Risk. Schizophrenia Bulletin, 46(2), 252–260.

Important notes

The DPRP is a research tool intended for the scientific exploration of the joint-modeling approach. It does not replace clinical assessment and should not be used as the sole basis for diagnostic or treatment decisions. Application requires that the input data (BPRS-E) were collected by trained clinicians.